Forecast 2019 GDP 2.2% | Inflation 1.7%
Forecast 2020 GDP 1.7% | Inflation 2.1%
The Growth momentum is on a downward trajectory but is expected to stay above trend for 2019. Slowing growth in Europe and China could constrain exports, but consumption drivers remain intact. A downturn is expected in 2020 (negative fiscal impulse and trade tensions). High in corporate leverage and funding costs pose a threat to debit servicing, refinancing and capex. Well-anchored inflation expectations and lower energy prices are keeping headline inflation in check, while core is close to target.
Forecast 2019 GDP 1.1% | Inflation 1.3%
Forecast 2020 GDP 1.3% | Inflation 1.5%
The economic expansion has moderated. Sentiment has deteriorated due to geopolitics, vulnerability in emerging markets (Ems) and the threat of protectionism. Mild growth to be underpinned by supportive financing conditions, favourable labour market dynamics, rising wage growth and improving balance sheets. Amid low inflation (due to lackluster growth and lower oil prices), more stimulus was announced in an attempt to increase resilience against weak sentiment and elevated global uncertainty.
Forecast 2019 GDP 4.62% | Inflation 3.6%
Forecast 2020 GDP 4.5% | Inflation 3.4%
Sentiment towards Ems should improve in response to increasingly dovish rhetoric by the major central banks. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the globe and a further rise in anti-globalism politics could, however, hurt EM growth if risk sentiment towards the composite shifts negatively. There has been a reduction in macro fragilities, but rebalancing growth patterns to increase economic resilience against capital flows, unfavourable trade deals an exchange rate shocks in the long term remains important. A lower rate of currency pass-through has kept inflation within central bank targets in a number of Ems. As such, interest rates are likely to remain stable or move lower in some instances.
Forecast 2019 GDP 1.0% | Inflation 4.6%
Forecast 2020 GDP 1.6% | Inflation 4.8%
The execution of structural reforms is necessary to broaden economic opportunities to support growth. A mild recovery is anticipated in the medium term, as some regulatory and governance reforms are implemented. However, electricity supply concerns and downbeat sentiment are likely to dampen domestic demand prospects in the near term. If sustained, the positive trajectory in inflation expectations should lower the pressure on the Reserve Bank to maintain a tightening bias.